The Elephant Stays in the Picture
Much ink (and even more bytes) has been used to toll the death bell for Republicans in Northern Virginia. Indeed, the picture looks relatively grim if you just compare results from 2004 to 2008. In the 8th District, which consists mostly of the inner beltway around Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax the top of the ticket went from 35.16% to 29.65% (-5.5%). Not too surprising given the level of Obamamania in and around Washington, plus those cities have long been a weak point for Republicans. Further west, though, the picture gets even bleaker: in the 11th, which contains Fairfax and Prince William, the GOP went from 49.92% to 42.06% (-7%). In the 10th, which contains parts of Fairfax, Loudoun, and the Republican strongholds of Frederick and Warren Counties, the damage the worst, sliding from 55.10% to 46.06% (-9%). With voter turnout up by about 4% across all of the districts, it’s clear that Democrats were extremely effective in turning out their message and taking advantage of voter disgust with Republican leadership. By any quantitative measure, the future looks bleak for NOVA Republicans.
However, there are some surprising trends appearing in northern Virginia.
First off, there are TWO, count ‘em, TWO Republicans from Northern Virginia running for Attorney General: Dave Foster and State Senator Ken Cuccinelli both of whom are openly running as social conservatives. Dave Foster is formerly chair of the Arlington County School Board (officially a non-partisan position, but hey, a win’s a win, right?). Cuccinelli’s success may be more surprising: he first appeared on the scene after winning a special election for State Senate in 2002. He survived by 37 votes in 2007, and has quickly become the darling of social conservatives across the state. This all in a place that is supposedly increasingly liberal.
Perhaps more important, particularly as we stand at the dawn of a new liberal age in American politics (if you believe the hype, that is) is yesterday’s surprise result in the race to replace Brian Moran in the House of Delegates. In the 46th District, Democrat Charniele Herring prevailed over Republican Joe Murray. What was most unexpected was the margin: Just 16 votes. As this is well within the 1% margin needed to request a recount in Virginia, this race will be decided by the courts. Recounts in Virginia generally don’t change things, as a recount is generally just a re-reading of the computer printouts. Most of the time individual ballots are not examined. Still, the outcome is remarkable. The Washington Post has the scoop:
But the Virginia Democratic Party was outflanked by the GOP. Murray won the absentee ballot precinct with nearly 80 percent of the vote, a clear sign that Herring and the Democrats got beat in the all-important organizing effort..
For weeks, Murray and Alexandria Republicans have been telegraphingthat they thought Murray could pull off an upset with just a few hundred votes.
Democrats never took it seriously, and they will now suffer the consequences.
True, Herring appears to be the winner. And when the Democratic nominee stands for election to a full term in the fall, they will likely easily prevail. (Will it be Herring?)
But Murray’s strong showing is a huge coup for Virginia Republicans. With all 100 House seats up for election this fall, the Herring-Murray race becomes the last election that reporters and pundits have to evaluate the political landscape for state House races heading into the fall.
Instead of stories about the undeniable Democratic trends in Northern Virginia, pundits will have to leave open the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the GOP isn’t dead in Northern Virginia after all.
Meanwhile, while the Democrats were squandering the natural advantage they had in the district, as well as the amazing grassroots force and groundswell they had after the general election, praise was being lavished on the candidate whose seat was just barely saved:
NEARLY ALL of Arlington County’s elected officials endorsed Brian Moran for Governor last week. Moran, a former General Assembly member, is pitted against State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-25) and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe in this year’s gubernatorial primary.
……
“I’m supporting someone who has a long history of grassroots work,” [County Board Member Walter] Tejada continued. “He’s a proven, successful public servant in his community.”
With this result, I’m beginning to think that history of grassroots support must be fully in the past…..
