Foster’s Gambit
The conventional wisdom on the Republican AG race is that it is primarily one between Cuccinelli and Brownlee, with Foster struggling behind in third place. Foster has laid claim to a majority in a few delegations, but right now the battle seems to be between Ken and John. By and large, their approaches can be broken down thusly: Brownlee is the certifiably conservative crime-fighter, while Cuccinelli is the true conservative streetfighter who can win in NOVA. Why, just tonight I got an email from Cuccinelli touting the signing of his Choose Life license plate bill, while one from Brownlee called on supporters to call their Delegates and Senators to fight for an override of Governor Kaine’s veto of the triggerman rule repeal.
Foster, meanwhile, has been vaguely making the argument that since the AG’s office handles more consumer and other state related matters than crime, as a professional lawyer he can run what he dubs “the state’s second largest law firm.” That, and he can win in the deepest blue part of Northern Virginia, as he was once elected as a nonpartisan member of the School Board and in that position was actually able to push some conservative policies. With that message, Dave has been stuck behind in general terms of enthusiasm amongst grassroots and blog types (with the notable exception of Too Conservative’s VA Blogger).
However, in the past week the Foster campaign has taken a new tack: I fit in the best with the overall message of our ticket: the economy. A first salvo came via email late last week:
Republicans have the right answers to create and preserve Virginia jobs. The Democrats’ pro-union, anti-job “card check” scheme to eliminate the secret ballot is the exact wrong approach and will eradicate jobs in Virginia. I applaud Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling for their strong stand against the Democrats’ attempt to force card check on Virginia’s businesses and workers.
I know you will agree that Bob and Bill need a strong Attorney General nominee to be on the ticket with them this November. A candidate who understands that, without a doubt, the number one issue facing Virginia right now – is jobs and the economy.…..
As Attorney General, I’ll put my 28 years of experience representing businesses to work, so that we can put Virginians back to work. I’ll cut red tape and streamline regulations to make Virginia a more attractive place for businesses to locate, expand, and bring new jobs.
It also seeped through in Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessom’s endorsement of Foster, courtesy of Bearing Drift:
“As mayor of Virginia Beach, I know that Dave Foster will be the Attorney General we need to cut red tape, bring jobs to Virginia and help get the economy moving again,” Sessoms said. “Dave will be an asset to the ticket that will help Bob McDonnell win in November, and be a great addition to his team as the next Attorney General for the Commonwealth.”
He continued this theme during his appearance at the Roanoke Lincoln Day Dinner:
Even though Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling could not make it into Roanoke last night, the crowd was energized by their candidacies. They are focused on the right issue….JOBS. Dave Foster brought a sign that I thought was great last night it read “BOB’S FOR JOBS”. This is the most relevant issue for these times. The people of Virginia know that the GOP has the ideas to encourage real economic growth. While the Dems believe you create jobs by taxing jobs, we understand that taxing jobs kills job creation.
So Foster is definitely trying to make the argument that he’s better on jobs and thus will help the ticket by staying on message and therefore is the most electable. The question is, however, will it work? For starters, AG is a tricky office. While as many pundits will point out that the AG’s office really doesn’t do that many criminal prosecutions, the perception of the general public seems to remain of the Attorney General as the state’s “top cop.” Indeed, those same pundits (and Brownlee) point out that over the last twenty years the candidate with prosecutorial experience has always won. However, with Northern Virginia’s increasingly savvy voters, the kerfluffle over McDonnell’s role in the 2007 transportation fiasco, and increased coverage of the office’s role in consumer affairs, that could change.
There’s also the matter of how electability arguments play out in intra-party contests. They tend to be rather emotional affairs, as voters are being asked to choose which candidate best represents the party in terms of what that office means. By extension, primary voters will tend to choose the candidate that best reflects their view of what it means to be a Republican. We saw this play out in Virginia’s 2008 Presidential Primary when, after representatives of the other branches of conservatism had been knocked out (Romney for the fiscal conservatives, Thompson for the “full package” guys), the conservative rural part of the state went with Huckabee, while Hampton Roads and the rest of the “urban crescent” went with McCain. Electability may hold weight with some more strategic minded activists, but by and large, they will choose the candidate that best represents them.
There is, however, the little matter of this being a convention, which means that the first person to 50% plus one vote wins. The trick is, however, that candidates are not required to drop out if they don’t place in the top two, leading to multiple ballots. Therefore, the game plan for Foster (and to a lesser extent, Brownlee) is to hope that Cuccinelli falls relatively short of that threshold so that the horse-trading can begin. In this type of situation there won’t be many favors to be handed out, electability holds more weight.
Foster’s attempt here is to try to be the safest of the safe and be able to make the argument that he fits in. However, Brownlee’s electability argument of being the only prosecutor in a race that favors on could very well trump that. It’s an interesting tack, to be sure, and throws another loop in the game.
