Thanks for the tip–I didn’t realize that Palin was trending upward in the PPP survey (why I didn’t recall that PPP is a Dem firm puzzles me). Perhaps downward was the wrong word–as you mentioned on your blog, Palin definitely had a good night in Indianapolis two weeks ago. What I’m watching, though, is whether Palin can expand beyond her conservative base. I’m afraid the media has done a pretty good sell job on her at this point, and unfortunately, for all her great work as a conservative leader, she’s been suffering from some PR and political missteps of late.

I think we really haven’t started to see too much movement from Obama on head to head matchups, and it probably isn’t healthy (from a political or mental health perspective) to taking too much from these numbers this far out. I would also caution putting too much into her favorability ratings–recall that even Senator McCain had favorability in the mid-50s to low-60s throughout most of the general election, bottoming out around fifty just as we were headed to the polls.

Again, though, four years is a lifetime in politics. Let’s see what Sarah’s made of.

I would encourage you to check out the crosstabs on that PPP poll. Nearly half of the people polled were Democrats(40%). The poll assumes that Democratic turnout will be higher in 2012 than it was in 2008.

Even with it’s scewed methodology, the PPP poll shows Sarah Palin increasing by 6% and Obama losing 2% from the last PPP Obama v. Palin matchup. That is hardly downward momentum.

I would look to Rasmussen(the most accurate poll in 2008), that has Sarah Palin at 52% favorability nationally.