However, it would seem that, given that Wilt is “in” as you say and that Ritchie is supposedly “in” according to Myron, we may yet have a fight between, erm, the conservative and very conservative factions? My experience is that the remaining moderate/Country Club Republicans have pretty much gone quietly from Hburg/Rockingham GOP politics, though one could possibly put Marsha in that category. Whatever the case, I would assume that some of the old school money types realize there’s too much money to be made in “new” Harrisonburg to bother with politics. Elsewhere in the Valley its a different matter.

Thank you Facebook!

Not saying that of any of the candidates–just as a general note on how gadflies are born.

I agree about Chaz and Lowell Barb – usually the path is for a delegate to run for a constitutional office, not the other way around. I can imagine a really awkward conversation around the kitchen table trying to convince a spouse that it’s a good idea to leave a local job with a good salary in exchange for a part-time job in Richmond that only pays part-time wages.

I don’t mean to be crass about the decision-making, but I know if I were in that position I would have a really hard time convincing Mrs. Sharp to go along with that idea.

I’m still of the opinion that the mood in the party is such that this still has the potential to turn into a bloodbath like the Fifth–perhaps not nearly as consequential as the Fifth, but I think there’s still the chance for some SoCos, Paleos, FisCos and just a few plain whackjobs to go their own way.

And Adam, let’s be honest–I need the traffic and something to occupy my time. I do agree with you, however, that things may not fully shake out until the method of nomination. There’s talk elsewhere of “Marsha” and “Obenshain” factions–presumably running along Cooch/Brownlee lines. Yet I think that could be more of just people carrying over that temporary fight than any real split. After all, Mark and Matt did get Marsha’s boy Claybrook on the bench.

Generally successful candidates are those who have already have a public image rather than just a party role. That’s why Lohr trumped Elledge, and that’s why a field of Kerri Wilson, Ted Byrd and Tony Wilt is (in my mind) the most plausible.

Ted Byrd would be a good strategic choice, because if the Republicans nominate a candidate from Harrisonburg it makes it extremely hard for the Democrats to build a lead there.

Tony Wilt should not be underestimated, especially in the event of a mass meeting or a firehouse primary. In those situations late momentum with a large potential base of fervent support can be crucial.

From a spectator’s point of view, the most interesting contest would pit a city candidate against a county candidate for the Republican nomination. But a lot depends on the method of nomination.

But hey, I’m just a local progressive. You’re almost certainly going to have better info than me.

However, I think its pretty clear that things will move extremely quickly on this. Candidates who may say they’re definitely in right now could be out by tomorrow morning if the right candidate comes along/the right person tells them to not bother. The big question: Just how hiearchical is the local party? I think Lohr and Chaz would demonstrate that generally speaking a field can be cleared pretty quickly, but do the players want to play on this? Furthermore, has Tea Party fever caught on to such a degree that there’s enough people who are convinced that they “can do it better”, party leaders be damned? That’s what could make this a sideshow real quick, which is way I think its smart to look at whole field, likely and unlikely though some may be.

I suppose I can’t write without commenting on the DNR’s “list” though (trusting the paper over activists? Shame on you!) Byrd is definitely a possibility, and I was leaning towards including him last night but just didn’t because honestly I don’t know that much about him. However, he definitely has a good “valley name” and would be a fairly decent crossover candidate. However, is he solid enough for the hard right base? Sure they love him because he’s the only GOPer on city council, but again, all those votes take on a new meaning when interpreted by ultra-fiscos in a nomination fight. Still, he’s one to watch.

Ritchie is another one but he’s got a problem–his father. The senior Ritchie was adamantly pro-Brownlee and was even threatening to note vote for Cuccinelli in the general. How much of an effect will this have? Eh. The bigger issue is will they reward him when his profile as a volunteer leaves something to be desired.

Wilt is a money man. That’s his role. He’s not expected to be volunteer #1. Definitely a soco and could possibly get a large following quickly. However, if he’s late on the gun, he could get lost in the pack quickly.

What are you doing reading about our shenanigans anyways? I’d say go read some Democratic Shen Co blog, but from what I know about the median age of the committee it would seem most of the members probably only use the net to look at pictures of their grandchildren