On the Western Banks of the Shenandoah

Buried inside of a “catch-all” post from Salem Republican on Roanoke Valley Republicans is this interesting tidbit about the rules for balloting at the RPV Convention on May 29th and 30th:

The RPV Convention rules committee met yesterday. I was the 6th District rep. Nothing too earth shattering. Couple points of interest. Chair candidates will have to declare their candidacy by May 12th and meet with the Nominations committee shortly thereafter. All voting will be done on a single ballot after all the speeches. Speakers get 10 minutes which they can only use for candidate speeches (something I tried to amend but lost 7-6). No “last man out rule” until after the 2nd ballot. That means no one is forced out on ballot 1 but, in AG race, third place finisher on second ballot is out. Should make for an interesting convention. Process was very open and fair with all the campaigns giving input. I was humbled to be invited to participate and I’m proud of the work done by the committee.

If this rule sticks (and again, we could very well see a fight on this or any of the other rules on the 29th, partially as a test of strength and partially due to the ongoing situation with the RPV Chairmanship), then this will signal a major shift in strategy for all three AG candidates. This limits the opportunities for a war of attrition and makes it absolutely crucial that Brownlee ends up near par with Cuccinelli on the first ballot and keeps enough of his people on the second ballot to put him in a position to make a deal with the Foster campaign to carry the day.

Crystal Clear Conservative will be featuring video from the YRFV forum of all three candidates for the GOP AG nomination (Dave Foster, John Brownlee, and Ken Cuccinelli) throughout this week. If you haven’t decided who to support and haven’t had a chance to make it to one of the great forums or debates they’ve held across the state, this is a great opportunity to view the candidates side by side. First up: the three candidate’s opening statements.

While Krystle gets the video up, please enjoy my live-blog (I know, I know, so 2006) of the forum.

Krystle will have video, but the early word from the YRFV AG Forum is below. Highlights: the AG’s moral authority, the 2013 Governor’s race, and the lack of talk on triggerman. 

Moderator: Brian Smith

Format: 3 minutes per answer, 30 second rebuttal

Opening Statements

Ken Cuccinelli: My campaigns have been based on true conservative principles. I was the only NOVA State Senator to campaign for the Marriage Amendment. I have consistently proposed more cuts than spending. I fought against REAL ID, and believe that states need to assert their soverignty on this and other issues. Despite the difficulty of this issue in Fairfax, I have stuck by my guns. I have been involved in criminal justice reform. All of these issues are ones the AG candidate will have to run on.

John Brownlee: I am running for Attorney General: Virginia Top Prosecutor and top law enforcer. Our job is to keep the neighborhoods safe and to protect the children. As AUSA for the Western half of the state for the last seven years, I am the only candidate who has done that. I have gone after dope dealers, murderers, and rapists. I have gone after public corruption and bad corporations. I have run a law office, including criminal, civil and appellate divisions, and been the lawyer for 22 federal agencies. I am a conservative and a veteran.

Dave Foster: Two reasons for me: I can help because I have won in DEEP BLUE Fairfax, the only candidate to win in Arlington in two decades and did so TWICE (albeit nonpartisan School Board race). The economy is number two. I can cut regulation, go to court to fight for our right to work status, and speed up the permitting process.

QUestion 1: : Relay your experiences as a Young Republican and one lesson you learned.

Cuccinelli: I am still a Young Republican! But seriously, over the last 18 years I have worked hard for GOP candidates, and I came to my position as a grassroots leader. We have won our past three races with one of Virginia’s strongest grassroots operations. We did it not because of the candidate but because I brought people to the table with my core values. I learned my work ethic in engineering school. I have been the #1, #1, and #2 targeted Senator in my races.  John Cook won thanks to our work. 

Brownlee: When I was in high school in remember Ronald Reagan running for president in 1980. My mother drove me to Springfield to stuff envelopes for the man. I learned the lesson of public service. This is the first job I’ve ever run for. I don’t come here via politics, but because I believe in public service. I was in the Army Rangers. I clerked for a federal judge. I’ve always been a strong Republican, and I supported George Allen at the convention in 1993. I became AUSA because I was a Republican, and that is important. But I am running first and foremost because I am a public servant. 

Foster: I got my start with grassroots–door to door, phones, yes, even envelopes. I worked for Bob Daniel back in 1974, while my wife was with Phil Crane. After three years we moved to Arlington, and I’ve been a member of the Arlington Committee for 25 years. I chaired John Warner’s campaign in 1996. In 2002 Michael Steele asked me to head up GOPAC Virginia. What shapes me as a public servant? My children. They got me to run for the school board, drive me to want a safe society (which you don’t get by just incarcerating people), and make my focus on jobs. 

Question 2: As AG, it would be your responsibility to judge the constitutionality of proposed legislation, which may be at odds with your public policy views. How will you handle that?

Brownlee: The GA will pass laws, and the AG will be called to defend them. My views may very well be at odds. Hopefully, the House will be in the hands of Republicans. 99% of the laws passed will be constitutional. However, if they are fundamentally wrong (as with the Korematsu decision) I will not defend them. The big question is who has the experience to do that? I have. 

Foster: There is some disagreement here. The AG is the state’s biggest law firm, as former AG McDonnell had on his site. The people of Virginia, through the GA, are the AG’s offices clients. John said he would apply a moral filter on this–however, this is not the AG’s job. For example, Korematsu. In hindsight this was not a good position. However, it was upheld by SCOTUS. Would the AG have the right to reject that? No–you either support the law, or you resign. I have been with one of the world’s largest law firm. I give clients advice, but ultimately they are the client and make the decision. It’s not my job to object.

Cuccinelli: I’m in the interesting position of having actually fought to invalidate the law. I won the right for RPV to choose how it candidates are selected, rather than incumbents. I would argue that someone who’s done this is the best candidate. As AG, its not my job to get involved in public policy. I can lobby the GA–however, once its passed, I will defend the state. Now, if the law is constitutionally indefensible, I will lose. But if it is defensible, I will fight.

Question 3: Economists believe that illegal immigrants could get thousands of stimulus jobs. What are your feelings on this issue, and What do you believe should/can be done on this issue?

Foster: I have had the support of ethnic americans. Legal is the key word. I think that State Troopers should be given the authority to begin ICE proceedings. We need to consider which benefits we should extend. The courts hold that education must be offered. However, what about housing? I don’t believe they should be eligible. We should make it be clear that we are friends of immigrants. 

Brownlee: This is the #1 question I get. We should draw a bright line between legal and illegal immigration. We embrace the diversity of our society and those who follow the law.We should enforce the law. I am the only candidate who has ever incarcerated someone here illegally. We should also shut down the magnets for illegal immigration. We should focus of criminal illegal immigrants (i.e. those who are here illegally but also engaged in other crimes). We should put a retainer on these individuals and deport them once they have served their time.

Cuccinelli: Like other issues, I have a record on this issue. I have passed more legislation on this issue than any other member of the Senate. I have put through legislation to shut down public benefits (outside of education and emergency health care) for illegal immigrants. I have been fighting for this disincentive for years. When you combine this with sincere outreach, you will get support from these communities. Its not guaranteed, but its possible. I have gained the endorsement of every member of RPV’s ethnic outreach council.  Task forces got their authority to deal with boarding houses from a bill I carried. It worked so well after just six months of being quarantined to NOVA that the next session it went satte wide. We need standard practices for troopers. We can advance this issue without crossing the line.

Question #4: Last year LG Bill Bolling stepped aside from the Gov race to run for re-election. In return the State Central Committee endorsed him for 2013. Will you do likewise?

Brownlee: Yes. Bill Bolling did the right and honorable thing, and we should stick to that. 

Cuccinelli: I tell my friends to kick me in the tail if I get out of line. I am a friend of Bolling’s, and I will be in 2013. I am supporting him this year. However, just as I expect that accountability for myself, I demand the same accountability from those I support. 

Foster: He has to confirm he’s running. I endorsed Bill this year, and we share consultants. We can’t even assume anything about this fall. 

Closing (1 minute):

Foster: We have to win. I can help in the places we MUST do better. I talk their langugae, just as Bob and Bill are. I have been working with businesses for 28 years. I know how to talk the talk on jobs. 

Brownlee: Whoever we select will be a good candidate. However, the last five of six Attorney Generals have been 

Cuccinelli: In the last 25 years, no one has won in their first time out for AG. I am the ONLY candidate who has run on the issues the AG must emphasize. My record stands alone in this race. Everyone is a conservative in a primary–however, I am the true conservative. It’s not just my tens of thousands of votes but also the hundreds of bills. Trust but verify, and you can verify I am a true conservative.

In light of a busy, busy week in the AG’s race, and with just minutes to go until today’s forum at the YRFV convention (which I will be live-blogging), I wanted to note and comment on three interesting developments in the race:

-John Brownlee was endorsed by former Attorney General and 2005 Gubernatorial Candidate Jerry Kilgore this week. I think the strategic considerations here are rather dubious. Certainly the Kilgore name already carries some weight in southwest Virginia; however, that’s not a part of the state where Brownlee should have any problem, given his former job as Assistant United States Attorney. Additionally, Kilgore is known not only for losing the election in large part due to the misfire of an ad on the death penalty, but also in conservative circles for being insufficiently conservative, particularly on the abortion issue. (It should also be noted that he was a finance chair for the Rudy Guliani campaign) This not only ties Brownlee to the questionable past of the party, but it also exacerbates issues with conservatives in the western part of the state. He has issues in the upper and middle part of the Shenandoah Valley, although he has the backing of law enforcement in many of those localities. The Kilgore endorsement allows conservative leaders to raise those questions while saying “Hey, we have a TRUE and PROVEN conservative over here.” (I’m not questioning Brownlee’s conservatism–I’m simply saying that Cuccinelli has led on these issues). However, it is interesting to note that Kilgore was not a prosecutor was indeed a federal and state prosecutor but was in private practice when he ran–making this endorsement all the more interesting for a candidate who is clearly running a “top cop” strategy for the seat. Perhaps Brownlee wants to signal that he can run a “holistic” office?

-Speaking of Cuccinelli, he sent out the first of “several” issue papers on jobs. Curiously, this issue paper was not on guns or abortion, two of Ken’s key areas, nor on the death penalty, an issue where Ken has taken a beating of late. Rather, it was on jobs. You’ll recall that we’ve discussed here before that Dave Foster has already staked out territory on this issue. Are Cooch’s people hearing that this issue may have traction in the AG’s race after all? 

-Finally, Dave Foster had his own curious endorsement this week–well, not so much an endorsement but a special guest for an upcoming fundraiser. Former U.S. Attorney General Ed Meese, who served under Reagan and continues to be a rock star amongst social conservatives, has attached his name to the Foster effort. Foster has been stuck in third place from the very beginning–for him, the most viable path to victory is being strong enough to be in a position to cut a deal with one of the other two, most likely Brownlee if he fails to stay close to Cuccinelli. Brownlee’s people would be the most likely to cut a deal based on electability. However, by bolstering his conservative credentials, Foster opens up the possibility of drawing from both camps in the event that all three candidates end up near 33% on the first ballot. 

I couldn’t post about this race without talking about the money race. In raw numbers from VPAP:

Cash On Hand
Brownlee $117,894
Cuccinelli $160.844
Foster $22,499

Money Raised First Quarter
Brownlee $105,205-256 Donors
Cuccinelli $86,021-486 Donors
Foster $44,354-164 Donors

Money Spent 1Q
Brownlee $113,629
Cuccinelli $145,173
Foster $75,729

Analysis later

The conventional wisdom on the Republican AG race is that it is primarily one between Cuccinelli and Brownlee, with Foster struggling behind in third place. Foster has laid claim to a majority in a few delegations, but right now the battle seems to be between Ken and John. By and large, their approaches can be broken down thusly: Brownlee is the certifiably conservative crime-fighter, while Cuccinelli is the true conservative streetfighter who can win in NOVA. Why, just tonight I got an email from Cuccinelli touting the signing of his Choose Life license plate bill, while one from Brownlee called on supporters to call their Delegates and Senators to fight for an override of Governor Kaine’s veto of the triggerman rule repeal. 

Foster, meanwhile, has been vaguely making the argument that since the AG’s office handles more consumer and other state related matters than crime, as a professional lawyer he can run what he dubs “the state’s second largest law firm.” That, and he can win in the deepest blue part of Northern Virginia, as he was once elected as a nonpartisan member of the School Board and in that position was actually able to push some conservative policies. With that message, Dave has been stuck behind in general terms of enthusiasm amongst grassroots and blog types (with the notable exception of Too Conservative’s VA Blogger).

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The Roanoke Valley Republicans held an excellent debate featuring all three candidates for Attorney General on Tuesday night. Over 300 people came out for the debate, which was well covered in both the mainstream media and the blogosphere. 

For in-depth analysis of the debate, check out Bob Holsworth’s write up. If you’re more interested in the blow by blow, Sandi Bird live-blogged the event here and here. 

Since I wasn’t at the debate I’ll spare you my analysis, but I definitely have some thoughts on this race I shall share later in the day.

I hate to just be getting around to this, but this is one of the must read pieces of 2009. It focuses not just on the fall of the GOP in the Old Dominion but also the road back. To examine the fall, they sat down with former Congressman Tom Davis, who is not exactly everyone’s favorite, but he has some points. From the Weekly Standard:

 

Davis reels off the list of reasons for the GOP’s decline in Virginia, and across the country: “A very unpopular war fueled the left,” an unpopular president, and a huge money disparity (four to one in favor of the Democrats in Virginia, he says). An influx of minorities and urban professionals into Virginia was another problem because the Republican “message doesn’t address or invite the newcomers.” “Democrats have the ball,” he says. “Republicans have to hope they fumble. But we’re not ready to pounce on the fumble.” Republicans, he contends, are in danger of approaching Whig status, “talking about issues less and less relevant” to the average voter.

Although Davis is blunt about the state party (a “closed shop,” he says, which doesn’t promote viable candidates), he is not down on its prospects. Given the economy and the spending disadvantage in Virginia in 2008, he says, “It should have been a lot worse given the atmospherics. There is a lot of hope there.” He says simply, “We have to decide if we want to be a winning coalition.” Republicans have continued their hold on rural and religious voters in the southern and western portions of the state, but have fallen on hard times in the affluent (and more liberal) suburbs of Northern Virginia. They have had trouble nominating candidates that can appeal in both parts of the state. As more liberal voters flooded into Virginia over the last decade, the electoral math just grew more challenging for Republicans.

 

That last part really pins down the problem. The solution for campaign professionals in the last few cycles has been to focus on churning up huge margins in rural Virginia to offset problems in the Northern and Central parts of the state. However, Democrats have made such gains with suburban voters as trust on the issues central to them has declined that these numbers are impossible to overcome, no matter how many phone banks take place. Don’t get me wrong: GOTV is still important, but its only good if your message is good. And in NOVA, the message hasn’t been good for a while.

However, there’s a way back.

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