On the Western Banks of the Shenandoah

The snowfall in the Valley today cut my day at Belle Grove short–not short enough for me to catch the RPV Luncheon live, but enough for me to review the tape. Special kudos to the RPV New Media Committee for making this possible. New media has penetrated every aspect of the Advance moreso than any year (although I’ll note that many of the Commonwealth’s finest twitterers and bloggers have been a bit quiet today–though some of them may be fleeing back home to beat the snow). Here’s the feed for your purusal–I’ll note that a good chunk of the video is a a review of some of Tim Murtaugh’s greatest hits and other gootage from the campaign, so you may want to fast forward to catch the speeches from each of our statewide victors.

My thoughts below the fold

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CPAC currently leads in the polls, and since I may otherwise be engaged this weekend, the Advance is looking out for me. However, that doesn’t mean an end to our continuing team coverage of RPV’s Advance this weekend. I’m working on plans for a correspondent during the event. Bella has volunteered, but unfortunately there’s no way for me to humanely get her there, and I have yet to discover a way to discreetly mike her, despite the large frame of your average Norwegian Forest cat. Not that I think that a cat would be out of place. This is the confab where there will be much discussion of the Grand Old Party’s new outreach to a wider swath of voters, and I can only assume that includes Feline Americans, given the “Cat Lovers for McDonnell” button I spotted on the trail (and still seek for my collection, FYI).

Ok, enough of my insane ramblings. On to my very real thoughts about the coming weekend. First, some background on the event. It was started by former Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Donald S. Huffman, who served from 1983 to 1992. The event is an annual gathering of Republican activists to both discuss the past election’s results (there’s one every year in Virginia) as well as to prepare for the coming year. One would think this of this as a retreat, right? Well, Huffman and the original organizers were of the mind that the GOP should never retreat but always “advance.”

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Here’s some interesting stories and media about both the aftermath of the 2009 election season. First, the Richmond Times Dispatch on the brilliance of the McDonnell campaign. They note the importance of competence in a campaign. Just how can voters be expected to support someone who can barely manage their own effort to get elected:

The underlying problem for Deeds may have had little to do with strategy and tactics, however; at times the Deeds campaign appeared incompetent. Groups reported great frustration in trying to set up meetings and forums with Deeds. The candidate himself proved inept when working crowds. The Democrats dispatched mediocre surrogates to events where Deeds’ presence was required. Appointments that should have been scheduled in a day or two took several days or more.

The McDonnell effort never faltered. The candidate and his team stayed on message. If someone were to ask aides who would win the Notre Dame game, the snap answer would say, “Bob’s for jobs.” “Honey, what’s for breakfast?” “Bob’s for jobs.” And so on. McDonnell arrived early at breakfasts, lunches, and dinners — and lingered. He did not rehash old stories about setting out for college with $80 in his pocket but would address issues of immediate concern to his audience. He explained the state implications of Obama’s far-out agenda. His staff promptly returned calls and e-mails.

There’s also some commentary on the brilliant handling of the thesis issue, and notes that while Obama may have had some effect, ultimately campaigns matter.

Meanwhile, McDonnell’s ticket mate Ken Cuccinelli is getting to work. Also from the RTD:

Ken Cuccinelli sits at the head of an empty table in a large conference room at the Virginia attorney general’s office in Richmond — a fast-food cheeseburger in one hand and an open binder, thick with office briefings and organizational charts, in front of the other.
He intends to devour both.
As the attorney general-elect, Cuccinelli — a 41-year-old lawyer, fa ther of seven and Republican state senator from Fairfax County — inherits a statewide office formerly occupied by Bob McDonnell, who leveraged the high-profile post into a successful run for governor this fall.
“The first priority really is to get a team in place here that can continue, and we’re always seeking to improve the professional quality of the work done in the AG’s office,” Cuccinelli said.

The article also features praise from, of all people, Ken Willis, state director of the ACLU. It also features some of Ken’s trademark good humor and humility:

McDonnell, who turned the office over to Bill Mims in February to run for governor, said Cuccinelli has good people to work with in his old office.
Said Cuccinelli: “He emphatically told me I was getting a good office, by which he meant very knowledgeable and professional, very capable, doing a good job, even while struggling with the budget.
“He finished with: ‘Don’t screw it up,’” Cuccinelli added. “So I’ll try not to screw it up.”

Finally, via Bearing Drift, comes a remarkable video showing some of the hard work and dedication of people behind the scenes. It also features some heartwarming scenes of the Governor-elect himself being, well, a real person and the good natured, dedicated man that so many of us on the Victory staff were extremely proud to work for.

Buried inside of a “catch-all” post from Salem Republican on Roanoke Valley Republicans is this interesting tidbit about the rules for balloting at the RPV Convention on May 29th and 30th:

The RPV Convention rules committee met yesterday. I was the 6th District rep. Nothing too earth shattering. Couple points of interest. Chair candidates will have to declare their candidacy by May 12th and meet with the Nominations committee shortly thereafter. All voting will be done on a single ballot after all the speeches. Speakers get 10 minutes which they can only use for candidate speeches (something I tried to amend but lost 7-6). No “last man out rule” until after the 2nd ballot. That means no one is forced out on ballot 1 but, in AG race, third place finisher on second ballot is out. Should make for an interesting convention. Process was very open and fair with all the campaigns giving input. I was humbled to be invited to participate and I’m proud of the work done by the committee.

If this rule sticks (and again, we could very well see a fight on this or any of the other rules on the 29th, partially as a test of strength and partially due to the ongoing situation with the RPV Chairmanship), then this will signal a major shift in strategy for all three AG candidates. This limits the opportunities for a war of attrition and makes it absolutely crucial that Brownlee ends up near par with Cuccinelli on the first ballot and keeps enough of his people on the second ballot to put him in a position to make a deal with the Foster campaign to carry the day.

With just a little over a month to go in the AG’s race, the endorsements are now coming fast and furious. This morning, Ken Cuccinelli announced that he has been endorsed by Fred Thompson, former Senator from Tennessee, ex-Presidential candidate, actor, and radio personality. Not to be outdone, John Brownlee announced the endorsement of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating and Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama.

Now what to make of these endorsements? Frankly, most endorsements plus a buck fifty can get you a cup of coffee (and not a very good cup, at that). Very few voters vote based on the “scorecard” of endorsements. Perhaps at a very local level they can help, where people have a personal relationship with the endorser, and when the endorsing candidate has a “cult of personality” that follows them on every issue. However, where they are important are where they change or aid perceptions about a candidate and when they come with material gain.

Although I certainly did not expect Keating and Sessions to get involved in a Virginia nominating contest, their endorsement of Brownlee is not entirely surprising. Both are former U.S Attorneys, just like Brownlee. I have a great deal of respect for Frank Keating, and would have supported him for POTUS in a heartbeat. However, I also know that USAs have somewhat of their own fraternity, so it makes sense for them to endorse Brownlee. In that sense, their endorsement reaffirms what we already know about Brownlee–that he is Virginia’s “conservative prosecutor.” I hardly expect, though, that the attachment of their name will send anyone clamoring into Team Brownlee, as neither men has organized a campaign in Virginia. (Although I did find it intriguing that the email pointed to both as fiscal conservatives, a heretofore absent issue during the Brownlee effort)

Thompson’s endorsement, however, may have a bit more lasting impact. Thompson ran in 2008, and two of his most top level surrogates in the state were former Governor George Allen and current GOP Gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell. Additionally, although Thompson did not make it to the primary, between that race and his PAC he almost certainly must have an email and fundraising base in Virginia that can aid the Virginia effort. In short, Thompson has far more cachet with Virginians, but more importantly he has resources that the Cooch can use. Additionally, his endorsement means that he now has two ’09 contenders in his camp (he was previously endorsed by Mike Huckabee). If this is any indication, Cuccinelli is quickly building an unsoalition of fiscal, social, and “across-the-board” conservatives that may simply be unstoppable on the first ballot come May 30th.

Crystal Clear Conservative will be featuring video from the YRFV forum of all three candidates for the GOP AG nomination (Dave Foster, John Brownlee, and Ken Cuccinelli) throughout this week. If you haven’t decided who to support and haven’t had a chance to make it to one of the great forums or debates they’ve held across the state, this is a great opportunity to view the candidates side by side. First up: the three candidate’s opening statements.

While Krystle gets the video up, please enjoy my live-blog (I know, I know, so 2006) of the forum.

Krystle will have video, but the early word from the YRFV AG Forum is below. Highlights: the AG’s moral authority, the 2013 Governor’s race, and the lack of talk on triggerman. 

Moderator: Brian Smith

Format: 3 minutes per answer, 30 second rebuttal

Opening Statements

Ken Cuccinelli: My campaigns have been based on true conservative principles. I was the only NOVA State Senator to campaign for the Marriage Amendment. I have consistently proposed more cuts than spending. I fought against REAL ID, and believe that states need to assert their soverignty on this and other issues. Despite the difficulty of this issue in Fairfax, I have stuck by my guns. I have been involved in criminal justice reform. All of these issues are ones the AG candidate will have to run on.

John Brownlee: I am running for Attorney General: Virginia Top Prosecutor and top law enforcer. Our job is to keep the neighborhoods safe and to protect the children. As AUSA for the Western half of the state for the last seven years, I am the only candidate who has done that. I have gone after dope dealers, murderers, and rapists. I have gone after public corruption and bad corporations. I have run a law office, including criminal, civil and appellate divisions, and been the lawyer for 22 federal agencies. I am a conservative and a veteran.

Dave Foster: Two reasons for me: I can help because I have won in DEEP BLUE Fairfax, the only candidate to win in Arlington in two decades and did so TWICE (albeit nonpartisan School Board race). The economy is number two. I can cut regulation, go to court to fight for our right to work status, and speed up the permitting process.

QUestion 1: : Relay your experiences as a Young Republican and one lesson you learned.

Cuccinelli: I am still a Young Republican! But seriously, over the last 18 years I have worked hard for GOP candidates, and I came to my position as a grassroots leader. We have won our past three races with one of Virginia’s strongest grassroots operations. We did it not because of the candidate but because I brought people to the table with my core values. I learned my work ethic in engineering school. I have been the #1, #1, and #2 targeted Senator in my races.  John Cook won thanks to our work. 

Brownlee: When I was in high school in remember Ronald Reagan running for president in 1980. My mother drove me to Springfield to stuff envelopes for the man. I learned the lesson of public service. This is the first job I’ve ever run for. I don’t come here via politics, but because I believe in public service. I was in the Army Rangers. I clerked for a federal judge. I’ve always been a strong Republican, and I supported George Allen at the convention in 1993. I became AUSA because I was a Republican, and that is important. But I am running first and foremost because I am a public servant. 

Foster: I got my start with grassroots–door to door, phones, yes, even envelopes. I worked for Bob Daniel back in 1974, while my wife was with Phil Crane. After three years we moved to Arlington, and I’ve been a member of the Arlington Committee for 25 years. I chaired John Warner’s campaign in 1996. In 2002 Michael Steele asked me to head up GOPAC Virginia. What shapes me as a public servant? My children. They got me to run for the school board, drive me to want a safe society (which you don’t get by just incarcerating people), and make my focus on jobs. 

Question 2: As AG, it would be your responsibility to judge the constitutionality of proposed legislation, which may be at odds with your public policy views. How will you handle that?

Brownlee: The GA will pass laws, and the AG will be called to defend them. My views may very well be at odds. Hopefully, the House will be in the hands of Republicans. 99% of the laws passed will be constitutional. However, if they are fundamentally wrong (as with the Korematsu decision) I will not defend them. The big question is who has the experience to do that? I have. 

Foster: There is some disagreement here. The AG is the state’s biggest law firm, as former AG McDonnell had on his site. The people of Virginia, through the GA, are the AG’s offices clients. John said he would apply a moral filter on this–however, this is not the AG’s job. For example, Korematsu. In hindsight this was not a good position. However, it was upheld by SCOTUS. Would the AG have the right to reject that? No–you either support the law, or you resign. I have been with one of the world’s largest law firm. I give clients advice, but ultimately they are the client and make the decision. It’s not my job to object.

Cuccinelli: I’m in the interesting position of having actually fought to invalidate the law. I won the right for RPV to choose how it candidates are selected, rather than incumbents. I would argue that someone who’s done this is the best candidate. As AG, its not my job to get involved in public policy. I can lobby the GA–however, once its passed, I will defend the state. Now, if the law is constitutionally indefensible, I will lose. But if it is defensible, I will fight.

Question 3: Economists believe that illegal immigrants could get thousands of stimulus jobs. What are your feelings on this issue, and What do you believe should/can be done on this issue?

Foster: I have had the support of ethnic americans. Legal is the key word. I think that State Troopers should be given the authority to begin ICE proceedings. We need to consider which benefits we should extend. The courts hold that education must be offered. However, what about housing? I don’t believe they should be eligible. We should make it be clear that we are friends of immigrants. 

Brownlee: This is the #1 question I get. We should draw a bright line between legal and illegal immigration. We embrace the diversity of our society and those who follow the law.We should enforce the law. I am the only candidate who has ever incarcerated someone here illegally. We should also shut down the magnets for illegal immigration. We should focus of criminal illegal immigrants (i.e. those who are here illegally but also engaged in other crimes). We should put a retainer on these individuals and deport them once they have served their time.

Cuccinelli: Like other issues, I have a record on this issue. I have passed more legislation on this issue than any other member of the Senate. I have put through legislation to shut down public benefits (outside of education and emergency health care) for illegal immigrants. I have been fighting for this disincentive for years. When you combine this with sincere outreach, you will get support from these communities. Its not guaranteed, but its possible. I have gained the endorsement of every member of RPV’s ethnic outreach council.  Task forces got their authority to deal with boarding houses from a bill I carried. It worked so well after just six months of being quarantined to NOVA that the next session it went satte wide. We need standard practices for troopers. We can advance this issue without crossing the line.

Question #4: Last year LG Bill Bolling stepped aside from the Gov race to run for re-election. In return the State Central Committee endorsed him for 2013. Will you do likewise?

Brownlee: Yes. Bill Bolling did the right and honorable thing, and we should stick to that. 

Cuccinelli: I tell my friends to kick me in the tail if I get out of line. I am a friend of Bolling’s, and I will be in 2013. I am supporting him this year. However, just as I expect that accountability for myself, I demand the same accountability from those I support. 

Foster: He has to confirm he’s running. I endorsed Bill this year, and we share consultants. We can’t even assume anything about this fall. 

Closing (1 minute):

Foster: We have to win. I can help in the places we MUST do better. I talk their langugae, just as Bob and Bill are. I have been working with businesses for 28 years. I know how to talk the talk on jobs. 

Brownlee: Whoever we select will be a good candidate. However, the last five of six Attorney Generals have been 

Cuccinelli: In the last 25 years, no one has won in their first time out for AG. I am the ONLY candidate who has run on the issues the AG must emphasize. My record stands alone in this race. Everyone is a conservative in a primary–however, I am the true conservative. It’s not just my tens of thousands of votes but also the hundreds of bills. Trust but verify, and you can verify I am a true conservative.

In light of a busy, busy week in the AG’s race, and with just minutes to go until today’s forum at the YRFV convention (which I will be live-blogging), I wanted to note and comment on three interesting developments in the race:

-John Brownlee was endorsed by former Attorney General and 2005 Gubernatorial Candidate Jerry Kilgore this week. I think the strategic considerations here are rather dubious. Certainly the Kilgore name already carries some weight in southwest Virginia; however, that’s not a part of the state where Brownlee should have any problem, given his former job as Assistant United States Attorney. Additionally, Kilgore is known not only for losing the election in large part due to the misfire of an ad on the death penalty, but also in conservative circles for being insufficiently conservative, particularly on the abortion issue. (It should also be noted that he was a finance chair for the Rudy Guliani campaign) This not only ties Brownlee to the questionable past of the party, but it also exacerbates issues with conservatives in the western part of the state. He has issues in the upper and middle part of the Shenandoah Valley, although he has the backing of law enforcement in many of those localities. The Kilgore endorsement allows conservative leaders to raise those questions while saying “Hey, we have a TRUE and PROVEN conservative over here.” (I’m not questioning Brownlee’s conservatism–I’m simply saying that Cuccinelli has led on these issues). However, it is interesting to note that Kilgore was not a prosecutor was indeed a federal and state prosecutor but was in private practice when he ran–making this endorsement all the more interesting for a candidate who is clearly running a “top cop” strategy for the seat. Perhaps Brownlee wants to signal that he can run a “holistic” office?

-Speaking of Cuccinelli, he sent out the first of “several” issue papers on jobs. Curiously, this issue paper was not on guns or abortion, two of Ken’s key areas, nor on the death penalty, an issue where Ken has taken a beating of late. Rather, it was on jobs. You’ll recall that we’ve discussed here before that Dave Foster has already staked out territory on this issue. Are Cooch’s people hearing that this issue may have traction in the AG’s race after all? 

-Finally, Dave Foster had his own curious endorsement this week–well, not so much an endorsement but a special guest for an upcoming fundraiser. Former U.S. Attorney General Ed Meese, who served under Reagan and continues to be a rock star amongst social conservatives, has attached his name to the Foster effort. Foster has been stuck in third place from the very beginning–for him, the most viable path to victory is being strong enough to be in a position to cut a deal with one of the other two, most likely Brownlee if he fails to stay close to Cuccinelli. Brownlee’s people would be the most likely to cut a deal based on electability. However, by bolstering his conservative credentials, Foster opens up the possibility of drawing from both camps in the event that all three candidates end up near 33% on the first ballot. 

I couldn’t post about this race without talking about the money race. In raw numbers from VPAP:

Cash On Hand
Brownlee $117,894
Cuccinelli $160.844
Foster $22,499

Money Raised First Quarter
Brownlee $105,205-256 Donors
Cuccinelli $86,021-486 Donors
Foster $44,354-164 Donors

Money Spent 1Q
Brownlee $113,629
Cuccinelli $145,173
Foster $75,729

Analysis later

The conventional wisdom on the Republican AG race is that it is primarily one between Cuccinelli and Brownlee, with Foster struggling behind in third place. Foster has laid claim to a majority in a few delegations, but right now the battle seems to be between Ken and John. By and large, their approaches can be broken down thusly: Brownlee is the certifiably conservative crime-fighter, while Cuccinelli is the true conservative streetfighter who can win in NOVA. Why, just tonight I got an email from Cuccinelli touting the signing of his Choose Life license plate bill, while one from Brownlee called on supporters to call their Delegates and Senators to fight for an override of Governor Kaine’s veto of the triggerman rule repeal. 

Foster, meanwhile, has been vaguely making the argument that since the AG’s office handles more consumer and other state related matters than crime, as a professional lawyer he can run what he dubs “the state’s second largest law firm.” That, and he can win in the deepest blue part of Northern Virginia, as he was once elected as a nonpartisan member of the School Board and in that position was actually able to push some conservative policies. With that message, Dave has been stuck behind in general terms of enthusiasm amongst grassroots and blog types (with the notable exception of Too Conservative’s VA Blogger).

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