The biggest political news in Virginia over the last few weeks has been the emerging primary between Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. Well, to a certain degree….that story is slowly being overtaken by talk of the Governor’s agenda for the upcoming General Assembly Session and the upcoming Presidential Primary (though if Virginia will have much impact right now is anybody’s guess).

However, a new survey from Public Policy Polling (a Democrat leaning firm in North Carolina) put the conversation back in the news. Right now, Cuccinelli has a tentative lead over Bolling, 44% to 25%. A few issues with this poll–one, they use automated polling, rather than live interviews. Two, there’s no indication in the toplines that there was any real attempt at geographic weighting. One big issue right now for Bolling is that he simply doesn’t seem to generate much attention from the GOP faithful, despite having been in the limelight for the last seven years, stemming back to his first run for his current job. While his net favorable is +24%, 52% of primary voters don’t have an opinion of him. This compares to Cuccinelli’s net +41%, with 27% not having an opinion. However, Bolling is already attempting to heighten his profile, starting with this WaPo profile on his new role as the state’s “part-time decider” (referring to his new role as the tie breaking vote in the State Senate). Meanwhile, Cuccinelli has fired back at some of the key criticisms of his decision in an email to supporters shared at Bearing Drift.

So all that’s going on….but what about the race for the silver medal? That is to say, what about the Lt. Governor’s race? Right now, the other race ginning up alot of attention is Bell v. Obenshain v. Fairfax Circuit Court Clerk John Frey for Attorney General. Historically, here in Virginia, Attorney General has been the preferred stepping stone to the Gubernatorial nomination, but that all really depends on just how things play out in the general. If your AG candidate lose but the LG wins, then they suddenly find themselves in the catbird seat. Given that Virginia has few statewide offices compared to neighboring states, its not a bad place to be if your aspirations eventually head in the direction of the Governor’s mansion. So, naturally, the position tends to draw stiff competition, even if, statutorily speaking, its pretty dang boring (though most LGs preside over the Senate more actively than their federal counterparts and McDonnell has given Bolling more duties to Bolling than usual, the primary duty is still the macabre responsibility of waiting for the unthinkable to happen).

So, who wants this possible diamond in the rough? Here’s the rumored/announced contenders so far:

Announced On the precipice of announcing, but not quite yet…..

• Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart–So far Stewart is the only announced candidate for Lt. Governor. Corey has been making the rounds for several years around the state and already earned a great deal of cachet through his localities efforts on illegal immigration. He would not be the first local elected to make the leap from county politics to the state level (his predecessor, Sean Connaughton, ran for the position in 2005), but he’s probably the best positioned, coming from a key locality for statewide campaigns. He also carries less of the baggage that weighed down Connaughton in terms of fiscal issues. Furthermore, Stewart is also guaranteed to shake up the debate on localities versus the state in a way that Warrenton Mayor George Fitch failed to do in his quixotic 2005 Gubernatorial campaign. UPDATE: Corey isn’t exactly announced, but he’s definitely way more “in the game” than the rest of the field. So I’ll keep him separated from the rest of the bunch with the caveat that he’s not announced–but he’s more or less running.

Rumored

• Keith Fimian–Mr. Fimian has twice been the GOP nominee against now Congressman Gerry Connolly (formerly Fairfax County Chairman). Fimian came very close to an upset in 2010, but alas, no cigar. However, he still has a large following and certainly would start out with some strength in 2010–something that would make the roadmap more difficult for Stewart. However, Fimian won’t start with much of a base outside of the 11th unless he really steps up his operation over the next twelve months, and as a two time loser may have an image problem to overcome. Still, he’s a dynamic figure and one to watch at this stage.
• Pete Snyder–Mr. Snyder is the founder of New Media Strategies, an Arlington based social media firm. He recently left the firm to start a venture capital firm, Disruptor Capital, and to head RPV’s Victory 2012 program. Snyder is certainly well known within professional political circles, but less-so-amongst rank and file activists. However, he has strong business ties (ones that will only get stronger with his new venture) and his part in the Victory program will bring him a higher profile over the next year. Again, his NOVA ties are a plus. However, his part in the Victory program could possibly be as much a hinderance as a help, as there will likely be pressure for him not to be campaigning while trying to win Virginia for the GOP.
• Ed Gillespie–Former RPV, RNC, and McDonnell for Governor chair, Gillespie has a long, long history of Republican political work. He’s going to bring not only political expertise to the table but also financial ties and likely a top notch management team. Gillespie won’t likely be able to bank on NOVA ties as much as the aforementioned candidates. He’s one of those Beltway types who lives in Virginia because, well, what professional Republican wants to live in Maryland (Sorry Krystle, but if its any consolation, I still want Crabs for Christmas)
• Senator Jeff McWaters–I’ve gotta admit, I’m somewhat in the dark on McWaters, other than he won a special election for the seat of now Sheriff Ken Stolle down in VA Beach. Also, he’s earned a 92% rating from the American Conservative Union–not shabby. It would be a big jump to go from one and change terms in the State Senate to a statewide bid–right now, I imagine the talk is driven largely by the lack of other contenders from that part of the state. But he’s not a horrible fundraiser and was certainly generous with his money in 2011, so we shall see.

So that’s the field right now. I have them all included in the poll above, so vote away….well, them plus one. Right now, as a wild card, I’m including Delegate Ben Cline. Why? A few reasons. One, although is pretty much assumed that Delegate Cline is the heir apparent to Congressman Goodlatte, Goodlatte is pretty young in Congressional terms–he could conceivably serve another decade or so, so long as he beats off his upcoming primary challenge (and right now that seems like a good bet). Cline has a leadership PAC (although its seen little activity), and he hosted a hospitality suite at the Advance this year. He’s put himself through law school since he started his run in the House. I’d be surprised if Cline, a young comer by any account, sits still for too long–it’d be curious for someone to go from LG to Congress, but hey, stranger things have happened. At just 39 Cline certainly has room to grow, so hey, why not?

I suspect that the field we discuss now will not be the one we end up with in June of 2013. I suspect a Richmond based candidate will pop up, and I would be very surprised in that many NOVA based candidates stay in. In 2005 there were 5 candidates flirting with LG at one time or another but only 2 ended up on the ballot. It’s a big task getting on the statewide primary ballot (ask Emmet Hanger), so we’ll revisit this later. For now, though, have fun, and include any additional rumors you’ve heard in the comments.

First, DJ over at the Right Wing Liberal:

Very little distances either man on issues: In the State Senate, both Cuccinelli and Bolling established low-tax, low-spending, and culturally conservative records. They even made the same mistake (backing the Howell version of HB3202), and walked it back during the critical but now nrealy-forgotten 2008 special session. We may see some dramatic magnification of miniscule differences, but I doubt it will be enough for any neutral (of which I am one) to go one way or the other.

……

As candidates, Bolling and Cuccinelli have very different skill sets. This is the political version of apples and oranges. Bolling is steady, predictable, and affable; all excellent qualities in a candidate running on a good record in an electorate generally favorable to him. Cuccinelli, by contrast, is dynamic, originial, kinetic, and on occasion hyperactive. Many more voters would be comfortable with Bolling than Cuccinelli (good for voter breadth). Cuccinelli forces voters to think, takes risks that could be game changers, and never backs down from a challenge, thus appealing to voters who are more focused and engaged (good for voter depth). To make things even more complex, each man’s traits could be strengths or weaknesses depending upon the political climate – and that means the political climate could be the one thing that determines which one would be the better candidate.

Chris over at Mason Conservative has much the same thinking, though he framed it more in regional terms:

Its a battle between Richmond and Northern Virginia.

 

The agendas of business interests, local governments, and even the citizens themselves of Richmond and Northern Virginia are different.  Richmond is old Virginia.  Its business interests are defined by old bankers, law firms, and tobacco companies that have been bankrolling Virginia elections since forever.  Northern Virginia is defined by developers, contractors, dot.coms, environmentalists, public servants that come from PTAs and HOAs and where education and transportation and the biggest issues.  And when you look and the needs of both regions of the state, then look at the relative small size of the state budget (compared to other states), there isn’t enough money for both of them.

………

You want to know why Bill Bolling is so outraged at Ken Cuccinelli?  Because Ken represents the biggest threat to the power of Richmond in this state it’s ever seen.  He’s charismatic, made a national name for himself, never was able to be controlled in the senate, and he cannot be pushed aside as a “moderate” someone downstate conservatives would be embarrassed to support.  Bolling has done things the Richmond way.  He’s paid his dues, worked hard, been loyal, said and done the right things, and waited his turn.  Just like all of them.  There isn’t much of a difference in politics between the two, which is a much bigger problem for Bolling.  Ken can’t be brushed aside like Davis was by the claim he’s some wishy-washy Fairfax moderate RINO.  That card is gone, and Bob Marshall proved in 2008 how strong a conservative with a NOVA base can be in a primary, and Ken only confirmed that in 2009 with his drubbing that he laid on two other candidates.

Ken is like Northern Virginia because he doesn’t play by the old rules, he doesn’t care about who’s turn it is, he doesn’t care about the old way of doing things.

And so goes my thinking. What we have here isn’t so much a fight over issues as a fight over style. Bolling comes from the political school of thought that you need to bide your time. Principles are important…you wouldn’t be bothering with this if you didn’t have something pulling you in, right? But what good are you going to be if every time someone challenges you your first move is straight for the jugular? Work the vineyards, move up….you’ll get your chance to make a difference. Cuccinelli doesn’t quite see things that way…..its all about principles, values. You’re either right or you’re wrong. You’re not doing it right if you don’t fight in the streets, leave no stone unturned, refuse to confront people. That’s the whole point, isn’t it?

Which I think is what makes all of this so disconcerting for so many activists. Let’s face it—RPV is predominantly conservative. Yes, there’s a few, just a few old hat moderates left, but their numbers are dwindling every year. And yes, there’s always someone right behind you saying that you’re not conservative enough……remember, it wasn’t even twenty years ago that George Allen and Ollie North’s people were looked upon with some distaste. It wasn’t so long ago that Allen was the outsider…..and Bolling was one of his guys. But things change. So who do you go with? The guy who takes no quarter on your issues and is willing to lose, so long as he’s right—or the guy who was there all along, used to even be more like his now opponent, but waited, worked for this moment?

A sidenote: A lot of people seem to be framing this in the context of “Republicans always go with the guy whose turn it is.” First off, this is largely based off of experience in presidential primaries—Bush ‘88, Dole ‘96, McCain ‘08. This is comparing apples and oranges. I’m not convinced that “its his turn” holds as much sway as it did prior to the Tea Party rise and their domination in primaries in 2010, nor that it ever really existed below the presidential level—ask former Delegate Clint Miller if he thought it was Allen’s turn in 1993. Secondly, these races are very different—yes, presidential primaries are a long slog, but there you’re dealing with contacting millions of voters in different states, each with its own nuanced system for choosing delegates to the national convention. Here, you’re dealing with getting voters in one state out on just one day (remember, the State Central Committee has already settled on a primary). Yeah, sure, you need to target your areas of the state, but they’re not weighted—whoever gets the most voters wins. Finally, the reason we’ve ended up with “the anointed one” in many past GOP Presidential primaries is not so much that they were always the front runner—Buchanan was whipping Dole hard before South Carolina, and Bush had lost more contests than he won up to South Carolina in 1988. McCain was in a similar situation, and even the Gipper lost Iowa to George H.W. Bush in 1980. The reason they ended up winning was because either they were prepared for the long slog or the new favorites of the activists withered under the hot lights of the media. Say what you will about Cuccinelli upending the order—fair or not, he’s been through this before, as has Bolling, but to a degree he’s had it tougher in no small part to his narrow re-election to the State Senate in 2007. Cuccinelli, love it or hate it, is ready for prime time.

To underscore just what’s going on here in terms of this being more a contest of style than issues, I decided to do a little more research—I decided to actually LOOK at both men’s records. Well, scratch that—I decided to look up where the two men have stood in the eyes of various groups, left and right, that dare to rate members of the General Assembly.

Two important caveats here. One, let’s keep in perspective that Ken and Bill only served concurrently for three sessions—2003 to 2005. If you follow the GA, you know that no one session is quite like the other. Sure there are perennial bills, but those are not the ones that define each session—those bills come up year after year because they always fail. The issues that define each session change. Secondly, just as both men are going to go over each other’s records with a fine toothed comb, so did these interest groups. The bills that each group takes into consideration are rarely, if ever, a complete record of every bill that touched upon that group’s issues, and those issues change from year to year—which is why one year you may get a 100% rating but the next 40%. But until I or some other intrepid blogger gets the time to examine every bill both men voted on (which will likely be around the time one of them or their Democratic opponent is sworn in), this will do.

This information is gleaned, largely from both men’s pages at ProjectVoteSmart (Ken here, Bill here). If either camp wants to correct the record here, I welcome it. So with no further ado:

Cuccinelli and Bolling: Interest Group Ratings

Key:

NS—Not Serving in the body that was rated

NR—Not rated (group did not issue ratings)

All scores are out of 100% unless otherwise noted

Abortion

Virginia Society for Human Life (Pro-Life)

*Note: The Christian Coalition did ratings prior to Ken’s service. Bill received a 95% in 1997 and 100% in 1999.

Education

Virginia Education Association

Then last night the picture became a whole lot clearer when it was leaked that AG Ken Cuccinelli is preparing to announce a bid for Governor. It was expected that this wouldn’t happen until after the Advance, but, now its all out in the open. Cuccinelli has pretty much made it official, starting with an email to his staff that was leaked this afternoon:

You have likely heard in the media the many rumors about an announcement of a run for governor. While I wanted to wait to announce a candidacy until after the General Assembly session, as the rumors swirl, I find it necessary to put them to rest.

After much prayer and consideration, I have decided to run for governor in 2013. I have always intended to let you know before the media. Shortly after you receive this email, I will be sending a statement to the media announcing my candidacy.

Also of note: Cuccinelli stated that he would buck the recent tradition of AGs who seek the Governorship resigning to focus on their campaign/make sure the citizens have a full-time AG (depending on who you ask). Generally this doesn’t happen until the spring of election year, so I find it interesting the Cooch went to lengths from the start to say he wouldn’t be doing that.

We will continue this work together until the last day of my term. Just as I had intended not to resign as attorney general to run for a second term, I will not resign as attorney general to run for governor. The people of Virginia trusted me to be their attorney general, and I intend to give them their full four years. I also think it is important to see these lawsuits against the federal government all the way through, as they are unprecedented battles for liberty in our lifetimes.

I am committed to you and to the citizens of this commonwealth to leading this office and making this job my priority. I have no right to ask the voters for a promotion if I cannot continue to do my current job well.

Meanwhile, there’s been reaction from all corners, ranging from enthusiastic to downright icy. The only reaction anyone really cared about, though, was Bill Bolling’s, and as expected, he is not pleased:

Needless to say, I am very disappointed by Mr. Cuccinelli’s decision to run for Governor in 2013.  During the 2009 campaign, and since taking office in 2010, Mr. Cuccinelli had repeatedly stated that he intended to seek re-election as Attorney General in 2013 and that is what I and other Republican leaders had expected him to do.  Unfortunately, he has now decided to put his own personal ambition ahead of the best interests of the Commonwealth and the Republican Party.

But that much we figured. Bolling, however, has already been able to get the Governor squarely in his corner:

Virginia is fortunate to have both Ken Cuccinelli and Bill Bolling serving in statewide office. They are dedicated public servants and I enjoy working closely with them on a daily basis. While I do prefer a scenario in which both men continue to serve in statewide office together going forward, I certainly respect the right of the attorney general to make his own decision regarding future races. Since early 2008, I’ve been clear that I will strongly support Bill Bolling for Governor in 2013. Bill is a trusted advisor and a close, personal friend. As Lieutenant Governor, Bill has been a key member of our Administration. Serving as our Chief Job Creation Officer, Bill has been tireless and successful in his work to bring more jobs and economic opportunities to the Commonwealth. I look forward to supporting Bill in his campaign for Governor.

So what about the people who will actually decide this thing–you know, Republican voters? Again, reaction has ranged from enthusiastic to ambivalent to polite but disapproving to downright icy, with many in the comments sections of some of the state’s top right leaning blogs cheering for Cuccinelli but just as many chastising him for upending the “system”. Two bloggers have suggested Cuccinelli back off and run for re-election–one a Bolling supporter who fears a bloody primary will upend the party’s chances and another who specifically wants Cuccinelli around to fight UVA on the global climate records issue (UPDATE: for the record, that author is neutral between Bolling and Cuccinelli). For what its worth, in my extremely unscientific and lightly traveled poll, Cuccinelli and Bolling are tied, although there’s a bit more support for Ken running than not. Meanwhile, at Bearing Drift’s equally unscientific but far more participated in poll, Cuccinelli is leading Bolling 64%-32% (for some reason, they included neither rather than undecided). In the only scientific polling that has been done, an automated poll by PPP last August, Cuccinelli garnered 45% to Bolling’s 21%.

Others are bashing Ken for not upholding his “word”. For what it’s worth, as Chris at Mason Conservative points out, Ken wasn’t party to any agreement between McDonnell and Bolling, though at an AG’s debate in 2009 he said he wouldn’t:

“Will you pledge tonight that if elected Attorney General, you will support Bill Bolling for Governor in 2013 and not run against him?, asks Jay Warren.

“That’s just not something I would foresee happening.”, says Cuccinelli.

“So equivocally no?”, asks Jay Warren.

“Yes. Correct.”, responds Cuccinelli.

But he was guarded enough to say he didn’t foresee it….so that was then, and this is now. As I pointed out before, Cuccinelli is a darling of the right, not just at home but across the country. Indeed, rather than being at the Advance on Saturday Night, Cuccinelli will be playing a role as a moderator of a Fox News Presidential forum in New York City. (No word on what his Friday night plans are)

So if we’re looking at a Bolling-Cuccinelli match-up for the big job, where does that leave us for the rest of the potential field for other statewide offices? It was assumed that Lt. Gov. would be the only prize open, but now, it looks like that and AG will both be up for grabs. First out of the gate to finalize his plans is my own State Senator Mark Obenshain, who has announced (unofficially, at least) for AG:

Harrisonburg Republican Sen. Mark Obenshain confirmed Thursday he’s exploring a bid for attorney general in the 2013 statewide election as news broke about the future plans of that office’s current occupant.

A more formal announcement from Obsenshain is expected soon — he said he’ll make his intentions clear after Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli declares his plans for the next election. (Cuccinelli is expected to reveal his plans to run for governor in the near term.)

I won’t be shy about sharing this–I’m with Mark. I’ve worked with him since his very first run for State Senate in 2003 (when we shared the back of a pickup truck following a sudden downpour after a July 4th parade in New Market–he got us all to dry land post-haste–my kind of leader). In his time in the State Senate Mark has been a solid leader on issues like eminent domain reform, auditing VDOT, strengthening law enforcement in the battle against the scourge of crystal meth, and the like. He’s also not too shabby of a lawyer, having been repeatedly been named as one of Virginia Business Magazine’s Legal Elite. He brings both the heft on public safety and the sound legal mind we should be looking for in an AG contender. Obenshain will be hosting a hospitality suite at the Advance for himself on Friday night and as part of the Conservative Caucus with Delegate Ben Cline on Saturday night.

Also on tap, Corey Stewart. For what, though, we don’t quite know yet:

Prince William County Board Chairman Corey Stewart just won reelection last month but he’s already eyeing higher office.

Stewart said he will make an announcement in January about a run for statewide office — an office in Richmond.

Earlier this year, Stewart considered seeking the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate but eventually ruled that out. He recently endorsed George Allen.

Stewart’s made no secret of his ambition to seek higher office. He won’t yet reveal which job he’ll seek, but today Republican State Sen. Mark Obenshain, who had been seen as a leading candidate for lieutenant governor, said he’s exploring a bid for attorney general instead now that Ken Cuccinelli will run for governor instead of seeking reelection.

Stewart has received high praise for his local battle against illegal immigration in Prince William County. Stewart’s biggest obstacle will be his record as Supervisor–not that he has a bad one, as the average tax bill in PWC is actually substantially lower than a few years ago. But past history shows that being a Supervisor always yields a few votes that can be spun as “un-conservative”–both former PWC Chair Sean Connaughton and former Hanover Supervisor turned State Senator and now LG Bolling lobbed charges against each other in the 2005 LG race stemming from their own service on their respective Boards. Stewart will host a hospitality suite as well.

So what about the rest of the field, as it were? Well, we really don’t know yet, but there’s a few names that have been floated already, and several will have hospitality suites at the Advance. Here’s the rest of the names we’re seeing:

• Dave Foster–rumored to be considering a second run for AG, but also noted by some as a potential choice to square off for an open seat on the Arlington County Board of Supervisors
• Delegate Rob Bell–thought to be another contender for AG
• Delegate Bob Marshall–with Radtke floundering and no other challenger picking up speed, combined with coming very close to beating former Governor Jim Gilmore for the US Senate nod in 2008, Marshall is seen as possible late entry to the US Senate race
• Though not listed on the official RPV agenda, Dick Black is said to be hosting one as well. I’m not sure Black is really eyeing anything–after all, he just made his political comeback by securing a State Senate seat this year. I think this is more about securing a statewide financial base for future runs than anything in the near future
• Keith Fimian, who has twice gone up against Gerry Connolly in the 11th (in an open seat in 08 and as a challenger in 10). He came very close in the 2010 wave, but it looks like he may now have his eye on LG in 2013.
• Delegate Ben Cline, a former chief of staff to Congressman Bob Goodlatte, is said to be the heir apparent when Goodlatte retires, but with two potential NOVA based candidates for LG, there may very well be a place for Cline in that race…
• Dumfries Town Councilwoman Kristin Forrester–this is her second go around–she’s up to SOMETHING, but it’s not entirely clear what….
• former Governor and former Senator George Allen–if I have to explain this one….but yeah, he’s running for the US Senate nomination
• RPV Chairman Pat Mullins. Interestingly, this one is billed as Pat Mullins FOR Chairman–could be reading too much into this, but that would seem to indicate that Mullins is likely leaning towards seeking re-election as chairman at next June’s state convention

Also hosting suites: Americans for Prosperity and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, along with the Senate Caucus. Plenty of fireworks, what with the sudden start to the 2013 campaign and the Presidential Primary which, ironically, may lurk in the shadows to a certain degree….although many will still be gathering signatures, I imagine.

From Bearing Drift:

As mentioned here first back in September, two MSM news sources — the WaPo and the Virginia Pilot – are now repeating what Bearing Drift readers have known for weeks…

Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli will be announcing his bid for Virginia Governor in the coming days, possibly as soon as the RPV Advance this weekend.

It’s been rumbled about for months…well, years, really. After the GOP made their first clean sweep of all three statewide constitutional offices in more than a decade in 2009, it suddenly found itself in an unenviable position–there were now two men on the platform who were viewed as the heir apparents to the Governor-elect Bob McDonnell: AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli and re-elected LG Bill Bolling.

Yeah, yeah, you said “Wha? We just had an election!” That’s not how it works, though–there’s always jockeying for the next time the minute the last votes came in–heck, Mitt Romney was talking 2008 before the first votes were even cast in 2004. It’s all part of the horserace I talked about in my last post. But in the Old Dominion, the stakes are even higher–it’s the only state in the Union that limits its governor to a single four-year term at a time. Governors can come back four years after their successor is chosen, but so far, only one has pulled it off in the modern era. So there’s real incentive, knowing that whatever happens you won’t have contend with the big guy, to go ahead and start planning.

Really, this wasn’t all that new. In 2005, while the top of the ticket in the form of Jerry Kilgore floundered, Bolling won the LG slot for the first time and Bob McDonnell won, though the initial election did lead to a recount. It looked like there would be a repeat of 2001, when LG John Hager and AG Mark Earley squared off at a convention. Earley prevailed but lost the fall election to now-Senator Mark Warner. Many within the party felt the divisive contest led to a weak Earley effort where Warner was able to peel off a good chunk of moderates in rural parts of the state. So all eyes were on the two men to see what would happen. Both held their cards close to the chest, but ultimately in March 2008 Bolling decided not to run, leaving the path clear for Bob McDonnell, who won in 2009 in a landslide along with Bill and Ken.

The word at the time was that Bolling did this with the tentative support of a good chunk of state and local party leaders pledging to keep the path open for him in 2013. But a funny thing happened….the Tea Party. In Cuccinelli, they saw themselves. Even though his rise predates the Tea Party by about 7 years, here was a true, red blooded, take no prisoners conservative–an AG who took on Obamacare and the EPA! Cucinelli very quickly, in word and deed, became  a darling of the Tea Party movement. Bolling, meanwhile, has tended to the party vines and been a good soldier for McDonnell as his Jobs Creation Officer, but frankly, he hasn’t captured the imagination of tea party activists. Some are old Republican hands, some are newer to the party–but Cuccinelli has a lock on them in a way Bolling doesn’t.

So, honestly, to me, its no shock that Cuccinelli has thrown his hat in the ring. You may say, again, “GAH! Why so early??” But honestly, Bolling’s decision came in the midst of the last GOP Presidential contest, so we’re really only a quarter ahead of schedule. But Cuccinelli has been laying the groundwork for a while….what other AG has had volunteer liasions for each county in the state? I think, ultimately, this comes down to timing. One, Cuccinelli probably recognizes that, a few months from now, many Tea Party activists may be distinctly unhappy with the GOP Presidential nominee, so he wants to make sure they don’t stalk away from the party, that they stick around knowing that there’s at least ONE good guy with those goofy/power-mad/corrupted (depending on your take) Republicans. Secondly, this weekend is the annual Republican Re….uh, Advance. Republicans never retreat, always Advance, anyways, long story. My point is hundreds of top level activists will be descnding upon Warm Springs this weekend….and right next door in Rockbridge County, the Tea Party will be hosting a major confab featuring a debate amongst several US Senate Candidates. Why let Bolling take all the spotlight and stay in the background hemming and hawing? Strike while the iron’s hot.

Two notes:

One, there’s a narrative that’s already cropped up that the GOP is the “it’s his turn party”, that it always gives the nomination to the guy who has tended the vines, put in the hours. For starters, I don’t think that’s a good way to handle things. We need to go with candidates who are exciting, articulate with their views, and hold strong positions on key issues. Secondly, I think its a flawed view. People point to Dole in 1996 or Bush in 1988–but let’s keep this in perspective. It wasn’t exactly a cakewalk for Dole–he lost NH, AK, and LA to Buchanan and DE to Forbes, and did not get the margin he wanted in Iowa. Bush, on the other hand, was 6-7 before Super Tuesday led him to the White House. Here’s what happened: Activists became enamored of new candidates, and were drawn to them. They did well, and for a time it looked like the anointed ones may be knocked off. But then the media spotlight kicked in, and they withered. The difference? The old hands had been through this drill. They were able to keep going and slog through the dark days til they got their momentum back. Republican voters didn’t suddenly decide “No, we have to give it to the old hand”–what happened is the flavor of the month went bad, and the old hats were ready to take advantage because they could survive. Heck, even Reagan lost Iowa in 1980. But this go around–well, we have two good soldiers and two old hands. No, Ken hasn’t been around as long as Bolling, but he has done hard work for the party, and he also has been under the withering attentions of the statewide media. So this won’t be as cut and dry as those affairs…..

Secondly, the SCC has already decided on a primary. It comes down to one day, not a series of mass meetings/conventions that lead into a statewide convention (which, by the way, are not binding and difficult to “win”). Nope, its a primary, one in which any voter can vote (though if the Dems also hold a primary, you can only choose one ballot), plus absentee voting to boot, meaning more people can vote, people who may not be able to make it to a convention. The argument usually is that conventions turn out more conservative nominees, as their activists are more dedicated and more willing to travel long distances for their guys, but…..conservatives can benefit. Christine O’Donnell, anyone? I think the way it stands, Cuccinelli could easily run away with NOVA (which, despite his uber-conservative image, would be happy to finally have a true “one of us” in the statehouse…yes, yes, McDonnell was raised there, but he didn’t come “from” there politically) and the Shenandoah Valley, where Cuccinelli appears to be deeply, deeply popular.

However, don’t start writing the Bolling obituaries yet. Let’s keep in mind that Bolling is not exactly a nobody–that’s what makes this race so compelling. And not being a nobody, he has a full stable of consultants who’ve won before, and he’s got his Richmond base, and he’s got financial backers. He already has a substantial cash advantage over Cuccinelli–about a $300k advantage–and plenty of old party hands around the state who won’t give up on him so easy. There’ll be plenty of ink and bytes spilled on this one….

But for now, have your say with the polls at the top and the comments below.

My thoughts below the fold

–Bob Goodlatte gave the invocation. The event has been held in Bath County, part of his district, in three of the last five years. He got a fairly warm reception, but he continues to be on the most underrated members of our delegation (And why not, when the Minority Whip is from the Commonwealth), so its nice to see him get some limelight. Goodlatte is likely a shoe-in to chair Judiciary if we take back the House in 2010.

–NOVA is back in a big big way. Incoming Delegate Jim LeMunyon gave the pledge of allegiance, and most of the individual plaudits that went out where to NOVA people–indeed, Glen Caroline, LCRC Chair, won Chairman of the Year, and Fairfax won best unit. Even though Bob McDonnell thanked many, MANY people, NOVA was first up for recognition. There won’t be a big statewide fight until 2012–and even that may be preempted if Allen jumps in for a rematch against Webb–so it’s too early to tell just what NOVA’s strength is, but I suspect there will be at least one Northern Virginia leader on the statewide ticket in 2013.

–Also back in a big way–RPV itself. Mullins himself noted RPV’s turnaround, Tim Murtaugh’s efforts on behalf of the campaign were highlighted, and Northern Virginia field rep (and I mean that in a broad way–his territory stretches all the way to Shenandoah County) Frank Puelo, one of the hardest working men in Virginia politics, was personally singled out by Bob McDonnell. The Advance itself took in over $160k–and Pat Mullins was sure to note that when he rode into town RPV was barely able to pay the bills.

–Highlighted during the lunch–the infamous Dirty Deeds video, which was taken down from YouTube (presumably over copyright issues). Though it was only up for a short time, the video and the meme went a long way in framing Deeds as a desperate candidate sticking to divisive issues and devoid of positive ideas for Virginia.

–Ken Cuccinelli got a warm welcome–particularly from Augusta County, who he singled out. Though Augusta County’s grassroots activists are still split over local intraparty squabbles, the unit continues to be a powerhouse and was a key reason that the 6th went big for Ken Cuccinelli at the 2009 Convention despite it ostensibly being John Brownlee’s stomping grounds. Ken’s speech was mostly a thank you, and he yielded the spotlight in favor of a private session later in the day with activists discussing the reasons for our big wins this year.

–Bill Bolling spoke next and got an equally warm welcome. It’s too early to start any speculation on early jockeying for 2013, but one thing is clear: Bill Bolling is NOT going to let anyone forget that he made an amazing sacrifice by sparing the party a fight by not running in 2009.

–One critique for Bolling–be careful quoting “The Candidate.” It is a beautiful film about politics, but not beautiful in the way that Mr. Smith Goes to Washington is. Rather, it takes a scathing satirical look at the devolution of politics into soundbites, spin, and personality–years before the advent of the 24 hour news cycle and bloggers. It’s a cautionary tale for idealistic people running for office–and maybe not the sort of film we want to reference right now.

–The final speech was from the big guy: Governor-elect Bob McDonnell. McDonnell’s speech was again long on thank yous, but he also spent some time analyzing the reasons behind the team’s victory. He unveiled a new code word for the principles that he ran on: results oriented conservatism, or ROC. Will this catch on as a big new catchphrase? Doubtful, but McDonnell laid out perhaps the most eloquent explanation of his view of conservatism and how we can win again in 2010.”Conservatives can win elections in competitive states if they stay true to their principles while addressing the concerns that everyday….voters care about,” McDonnell said.

–McDonnell made clear, to this crowd, that he was going to be a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, pro-family, pro-property rights governor–but he noted that while we should never forget these principles, we should also never forget that citizens need results

–McDonnell also provided a bit of the bold policy agenda he will pusure as governor by highlighting what he hopes people will remember when he leaves office in 2014. Consider this his pre-inaugural address:

• Balanced budgets that respect taxpayers and prioritize economic development
• Education reform via charter schools
• True privatization, consolidation, and reform
• A transportation plan that gets things done
• Privatized liquor stores and open rest stops

–McDonnell reached out for people to help. Might we see those massive email lists switch over to the Opportunity Virginia PAC to serve as an Organizing for America-esque pressure group?

Ok, enough of my insane ramblings. On to my very real thoughts about the coming weekend. First, some background on the event. It was started by former Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Donald S. Huffman, who served from 1983 to 1992. The event is an annual gathering of Republican activists to both discuss the past election’s results (there’s one every year in Virginia) as well as to prepare for the coming year. One would think this of this as a retreat, right? Well, Huffman and the original organizers were of the mind that the GOP should never retreat but always “advance.”

Quaint, yes, but the event has become an annual affair where people are always on the lookout for who is jockeying for position. The hospitality suites themselves have become the stuff of news, as who hosts them (and their respective crowds) is seen as a marker of who’s up and who’s down. Also noticed are the various speeches which have a tendency to set the tone for policy debates about to occur in the coming General Assembling session.

SWAC Girl has her thoughts up, pointing out that homeschool activist Mike Farris will be speaking at the breakfast on Saturday and that the luncheon on Saturday will play host to Governor-elect Bob McDonnell’s first public speech since his election November 3rd. She is one voice I’ll rely on for coverage, along hopefully with Krystle Weeks of Crystal Clear Conservative.

The Advance has come under fire in recent years for being an exclusive event long on glitz and short on training. Indeed, three of the last five have been at the posh Homestead Resort in Bath County–quite a drive for Northern Virginians and out of the pocketbook of many activists. Much of this rests is due to the constant merry-go-round of chairmen that has beleaguered the party since the early part of the decade. Indeed, current congressman Randy Forbes is the last party chair to serve his four year entire term, and that was back in 2000. Although this year’s Advance still comes with a steep price tag, the event seems to be long on education.

There’s going to be five, count ‘em, FIVE seperate discussions of New Media. The names are not just any random bloggers, either. They include Lynn Mitchell, who has probably one of the most influential blogs in the region, with her words having both digital and real world impact; the minds behind ProjectVirginia, whose guidance helped a number of small races across the state make great use of social networking; Tim Murtaugh, RPV’s communications director who brought us often hilarious and always stinging videos about Creigh Deed’s ghost-like campaign; and Vince Harris, the mind behind McDonnell’s stellar efforts this year and the extremely popular blog Too Conservative.

There will also be two round tables discussing the results, one with AG-elect Ken Cuccinelli and another with Speaker Howell. Perhaps most importantly, there will also be workshops on three items that should be the cornerstones of any Unit Chairman’s knowledge: legal, data collection and storage, and fund raising. The legal workshop is particularly notable for some of the luminaries it will feature, including Chris Berg, who was my liaison with the legal department during the closing days of the campaign and who has an amazing amount of knowledge regarding the “death by a thousand cuts” approach of the Unions and Democrats. Also on tap: Cameron Quinn, a former Chair of the State Board of Elections.

Also notable: the hospitality suites. As expected, three candidates for Congress in the Second district will host receptions. This is natural, given that the event is right next door to the district and will likely draw a larger proportion of its crowd from the region. The only thing curious about this is who ISN’T hosting a suite: Chuck Smith, who has been gunning hard for the seat since late 2008, to the point where he was shaking almost every hand at the RPV State Convention (and actually had to be asked to leave the lunch pick-up area to keep the crowd moving).

More curious: Feda Kidd Morton is hosting a suite the day before the Fifth District Committee selects its nominating method. Certainly, Morton is picking up a great deal of statewide support, but why put all that money and time into an event not even in the district? Certainly this race is going to become the focus of a great deal of statewide attention, but endorsements from Pat McSweeney and Kathy Hayden Terry only get you so far. It’s going to be up to the activists to decide this one, particularly if it ends up being a convention.

Her presence may very well be due to McSweeney himself. McSweeney is speaking on fighting ObamaCare at the Virginia State PAC suite at 9 P.M. on Friday. I did a little bit of research and discovered that the Virginia State PAC was created out of the leftover funds of former Delegate Richard Black’s campaign committee, who lost to now Former Delegate David Poisson in 2005. Black may be best noted for being an incredibly outspoken opponent of abortion, going so far as to once handing out plastic fetuses to colleauges. So far the Virginia State PAC has no receipts outside of the leftovers of Black’s PAC, and so far the only donations it has made has been to Ken Cuccinelli and Bob Marshall, certainly two candidates that meet McSweeney and Black’s criteria. Could this be a sign of new organizing efforts on the social conservative front (along with the ostensibly non-political Restoring the Founder’s Vision group, also headed by McSweeney)?

Intrigue abounds this holiday season.

The underlying problem for Deeds may have had little to do with strategy and tactics, however; at times the Deeds campaign appeared incompetent. Groups reported great frustration in trying to set up meetings and forums with Deeds. The candidate himself proved inept when working crowds. The Democrats dispatched mediocre surrogates to events where Deeds’ presence was required. Appointments that should have been scheduled in a day or two took several days or more.

The McDonnell effort never faltered. The candidate and his team stayed on message. If someone were to ask aides who would win the Notre Dame game, the snap answer would say, “Bob’s for jobs.” “Honey, what’s for breakfast?” “Bob’s for jobs.” And so on. McDonnell arrived early at breakfasts, lunches, and dinners — and lingered. He did not rehash old stories about setting out for college with $80 in his pocket but would address issues of immediate concern to his audience. He explained the state implications of Obama’s far-out agenda. His staff promptly returned calls and e-mails.

There’s also some commentary on the brilliant handling of the thesis issue, and notes that while Obama may have had some effect, ultimately campaigns matter.

Meanwhile, McDonnell’s ticket mate Ken Cuccinelli is getting to work. Also from the RTD:

Ken Cuccinelli sits at the head of an empty table in a large conference room at the Virginia attorney general’s office in Richmond — a fast-food cheeseburger in one hand and an open binder, thick with office briefings and organizational charts, in front of the other.
He intends to devour both.
As the attorney general-elect, Cuccinelli — a 41-year-old lawyer, fa ther of seven and Republican state senator from Fairfax County — inherits a statewide office formerly occupied by Bob McDonnell, who leveraged the high-profile post into a successful run for governor this fall.
“The first priority really is to get a team in place here that can continue, and we’re always seeking to improve the professional quality of the work done in the AG’s office,” Cuccinelli said.

The article also features praise from, of all people, Ken Willis, state director of the ACLU. It also features some of Ken’s trademark good humor and humility:

McDonnell, who turned the office over to Bill Mims in February to run for governor, said Cuccinelli has good people to work with in his old office.
Said Cuccinelli: “He emphatically told me I was getting a good office, by which he meant very knowledgeable and professional, very capable, doing a good job, even while struggling with the budget.
“He finished with: ‘Don’t screw it up,’” Cuccinelli added. “So I’ll try not to screw it up.”

Finally, via Bearing Drift, comes a remarkable video showing some of the hard work and dedication of people behind the scenes. It also features some heartwarming scenes of the Governor-elect himself being, well, a real person and the good natured, dedicated man that so many of us on the Victory staff were extremely proud to work for.

The RPV Convention rules committee met yesterday. I was the 6th District rep. Nothing too earth shattering. Couple points of interest. Chair candidates will have to declare their candidacy by May 12th and meet with the Nominations committee shortly thereafter. All voting will be done on a single ballot after all the speeches. Speakers get 10 minutes which they can only use for candidate speeches (something I tried to amend but lost 7-6). No “last man out rule” until after the 2nd ballot. That means no one is forced out on ballot 1 but, in AG race, third place finisher on second ballot is out. Should make for an interesting convention. Process was very open and fair with all the campaigns giving input. I was humbled to be invited to participate and I’m proud of the work done by the committee.

If this rule sticks (and again, we could very well see a fight on this or any of the other rules on the 29th, partially as a test of strength and partially due to the ongoing situation with the RPV Chairmanship), then this will signal a major shift in strategy for all three AG candidates. This limits the opportunities for a war of attrition and makes it absolutely crucial that Brownlee ends up near par with Cuccinelli on the first ballot and keeps enough of his people on the second ballot to put him in a position to make a deal with the Foster campaign to carry the day.

Now what to make of these endorsements? Frankly, most endorsements plus a buck fifty can get you a cup of coffee (and not a very good cup, at that). Very few voters vote based on the “scorecard” of endorsements. Perhaps at a very local level they can help, where people have a personal relationship with the endorser, and when the endorsing candidate has a “cult of personality” that follows them on every issue. However, where they are important are where they change or aid perceptions about a candidate and when they come with material gain.

Although I certainly did not expect Keating and Sessions to get involved in a Virginia nominating contest, their endorsement of Brownlee is not entirely surprising. Both are former U.S Attorneys, just like Brownlee. I have a great deal of respect for Frank Keating, and would have supported him for POTUS in a heartbeat. However, I also know that USAs have somewhat of their own fraternity, so it makes sense for them to endorse Brownlee. In that sense, their endorsement reaffirms what we already know about Brownlee–that he is Virginia’s “conservative prosecutor.” I hardly expect, though, that the attachment of their name will send anyone clamoring into Team Brownlee, as neither men has organized a campaign in Virginia. (Although I did find it intriguing that the email pointed to both as fiscal conservatives, a heretofore absent issue during the Brownlee effort)

Thompson’s endorsement, however, may have a bit more lasting impact. Thompson ran in 2008, and two of his most top level surrogates in the state were former Governor George Allen and current GOP Gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell. Additionally, although Thompson did not make it to the primary, between that race and his PAC he almost certainly must have an email and fundraising base in Virginia that can aid the Virginia effort. In short, Thompson has far more cachet with Virginians, but more importantly he has resources that the Cooch can use. Additionally, his endorsement means that he now has two ’09 contenders in his camp (he was previously endorsed by Mike Huckabee). If this is any indication, Cuccinelli is quickly building an unsoalition of fiscal, social, and “across-the-board” conservatives that may simply be unstoppable on the first ballot come May 30th.

While Krystle gets the video up, please enjoy my live-blog (I know, I know, so 2006) of the forum.