Barack Obama carried Fairfax County, Va., 60 percent to 39 percent . In a special election yesterday for chairman of the County Board of Supervisors to replace Gerald Connolly, who was elected to Congress in November, Democrat Sharon Bulova beat Republican Pat Herrity by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Turnout was 107,713, far below the 516,254 last November. Another example of how Democratic turnout seems to drop off more than Republican turnout in special elections.

A few observations below the fold. 

Before I get into the political ramifications of the 

First, as I observed last week with the results of the RNC chairman’s race, Twitter is a custom made tool for election results and analysis, particularly amongst political professionals. There was a constant dialogue amongst technologists and activists on both sides of the battle, and it became very clear that, at least for a small subset of hardcore trend watchers, that this was THE story of the day. 

Secondly, the State Board of Elections website sucks. There, I said it. The interface is extremely clunky, difficult to view, and hard to track things. One thing that really irks me: they are very inconsistent about keeping track of turnout by precinct. Sometimes you can see it, sometimes not, and as far as I’m able to tell, never after the fact. It may not have looked cool, but I yearn for the days of just simple text. This also says nothing about the terribly slow nature of results. I’ve found several times that it’s really just better to send someone down to the Electoral Board and have the results phoned in. But who wants to do that? *sigh*

Seriously, though, what does last night’s race have to say about this fall? Well, first off, we’re not dead yet in Northern Virginia, particularly if we keep our message of fiscal responsibility and transparency. This was the perfect test, as a Board Chairman race was never going to be about social issues to begin with. The big question is can we maintain the message discipline that is going to be necessary to prevail with decent margins in Northern Virginia and a resounding victory in the rest of the state? Remember, as George Allen showed us, what we say in ROVA WILL be heard in NOVA, as long as there is YouTube. 

Secondly, all may not be lost in legislative districts in Northern Virginia. It was all but assumed that Fairfax would go entirely blue with its Delegation. However, according to Not Larry Sabato, Herrity not only carried all of the legislative districts currently held by Republicans (one Senate seat and three House seats), but he also carried six seats held by Democrats (three Senate seats and three House seats). Again, these seats will ultimately be decided by local issues (particularly in the case of Dave Albo, who was the architect of the abuser fees fiasco in 2007), but there is some hope for us in Fairfax.

Third, and perhaps the most important aspect for the fall campaign, the RPV is starting to get its act together on social networking and coordinated efforts. Those who were on RPV email lists and who belong to the RPVNetwork were barraged with messages urging them to get involved in GOTV efforts. However, there was one major problem here–while a clear message was here, the tools for involvement were rather limited. For me out here in the Valley, if I wanted to help out, I had to drive all the way to Fairfax to make calls. If we had a true social network that provided those tools, then who knows what we could have accomplished? We’re beginning to get the point that online activists are consumers–now all RPV needs is the tools. The big issue is that RPVNetwork is based off of Ning, which, while able to give us a quick start, is essentially a cookie cutter platform that does not cater at all to political needs. Chairman Frederick needs to start a concerted effort to build our Web 2.o efforts. We MUST build our own system–there are models out there, and the Ning is a good placeholder, but we can’t rely on it forever. The system must be activist driven and provide tools that we can use. 

Finally, it appears once again that the network built up by Barrack Obama is simply not translating to other elections. As you can see by this map, Herrity was able to carry plenty of areas by large margins in those areas he was “supposed” to carry while making important inroads in those areas that fueled Obama’s massive victory in the county, and in turn, the state for the first time since 1964. 

It’s difficult to draw too many conclusions from a special election, but the momentum seems to be on our side. It’s only a matter of maintaining that momentum and making sure the balance is maintained to see that we prevail in the fall.

On the right, Virginia Virtucon and Too Conservative. 

On the left but still hating Gerry Connolly, Not Larry Sabato.

The last thing I have to say before the results come in:

GO PAT GO!

In effort to lay the groundwork for his own campaign this fall, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) has dispatched paid canvassers and volunteers to help Herrity. By the end of the weekend, McDonnell’s staff estimates they will have knocked on more than 15,000 doors. McDonnell plans to campaign with Herrity on Monday.

Not to be outdone, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is turning his Mclean headquarters into a daily phone banking center in support of Bulova. While much of the work will be done by volunteers, McAuliffe plans to man the phones on Saturday.

McAuliffe’s rivals for the nomination, Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) and former delegate Brian Moran, are also dispatching resources to Fairfax in support of Bulova.

Deeds cut a robo-call for Bulova. Deeds also plans to dispatch volunteers from Charlottesville to Fairfax this weekend.

Moran’s political assistant, Chris Collins, has been embedded in the Bulova campaign. Moran has also been organizing Democratic volunteers from Arlington and Alexandria to send to Fairfax to work for Bulova.

Moran’s political director sets the stakes very high for both sides:

“A victory by a conservative Republican in this jurisdiction of more than one million would be a setback for us, just as the new administration and Congress are getting started,” Dominic Gabello, Moran’s political director wrote in an email to supporters. “This election will set the tone for the 2009 elections.”

He’s right. If a conservative Republican can win on fiscal issues in deep blue Fairfax, we may have a shot this fall afterwards.

Vice Chairman Sharon S. Bulova (D-Braddock) has promised to show fiscal restraint while also continuing the leadership of former chairman Gerald E. Connolly, who won a seat in Congress in November after years expanding county schools, housing programs and environmental protections. Supervisor Pat S. Herrity (R-Springfield) is campaigning to cut wasteful spending and keep taxes down.

Low turnout projections have prompted some to predict that this election could go either way, rendering blue Fairfax, home of one in seven Virginians, an unexpected battleground. If Republicans win, they will head toward fall elections for governor and the General Assembly with an unexpected rallying cry. If Democrats win, they retain the momentum that they have built in recent elections.

Either way, the chairman’s race is likely to be less a referendum on ideas than a reflection of who can spend more money and coax more voters to the polls.

The election also looks like it might be a major test of a new tack for the Republican brand in Northern Virginia:

Bulova, 61, is a close ally of Connolly’s and a natural heir for voters who approved of his leadership. A 21-year veteran of the board, she has been part of an 8-to-2 Democratic majority that has made its top priority the protection or expansion of some government programs. This majority has been rewarded, according to recent polls and electoral results, with deep satisfaction among county residents. Bulova’s central campaign message is to assure voters that she will continue the county on its same course.

“Fairfax is a great place to live, to raise our families, to work, to grow older comfortably,” she said at a candidate debate last week hosted by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce. “I want to make sure we continue in that positive direction.”

The race is complicated for her, however, by the strength and popularity of Herrity, whose successful career as a corporate accountant is drawing him support from the county’s well-organized business community. Herrity, 48, also benefits from sharing a surname with his late father, John F. “Jack” Herrity, who was board chairman for 12 years a generation ago and is the namesake of a major highway and government building in the heart of Fairfax.

With promises to trim programs and keep taxes flat, Herrity, who just completed his first year on the board, is also assuming that the soured economy and fallen property values have prompted a change of heart among voters about county spending. His overall message, in fact, rests on a gamble that residents want change.

Time will tell if Republicans in Northern Virginia will be able to win again by maintaining strict message (not to mention governing) discipline by focusing on bread and butter fiscal policy issues without betraying conservative values. But after the drubbing in November, it’s worth a shot.

However, there are some surprising trends appearing in northern Virginia.

First off, there are TWO, count ‘em, TWO Republicans from Northern Virginia running for Attorney General: Dave Foster and State Senator Ken Cuccinelli both of whom are openly running as social conservatives. Dave Foster is formerly chair of the Arlington County School Board (officially a non-partisan position, but hey, a win’s a win, right?). Cuccinelli’s success may be more surprising: he first appeared on the scene after winning a special election for State Senate in 2002. He survived by 37 votes in 2007, and has quickly become the darling of social conservatives across the state. This all in a place that is supposedly increasingly liberal. 

Perhaps more important, particularly as we stand at the dawn of a new liberal age in American politics (if you believe the hype, that is) is yesterday’s surprise result in the race to replace Brian Moran in the House of Delegates. In the 46th District, Democrat Charniele Herring prevailed over Republican Joe Murray. What was most unexpected was the margin: Just 16 votes. As this is well within the 1% margin needed to request a recount in Virginia, this race will be decided by the courts. Recounts in Virginia generally don’t change things, as a recount is generally just a re-reading of the computer printouts. Most of the time individual ballots are not examined. Still, the outcome is remarkable. The Washington Post has the scoop:

But the Virginia Democratic Party was outflanked by the GOP. Murray won the absentee ballot precinct with nearly 80 percent of the vote, a clear sign that Herring and the Democrats got beat in the all-important organizing effort..

For weeks, Murray and Alexandria Republicans have been telegraphingthat they thought Murray could pull off an upset with just a few hundred votes.

Democrats never took it seriously, and they will now suffer the consequences.

True, Herring appears to be the winner. And when the Democratic nominee stands for election to a full term in the fall, they will likely easily prevail. (Will it be Herring?)

But Murray’s strong showing is a huge coup for Virginia Republicans. With all 100 House seats up for election this fall, the Herring-Murray race becomes the last election that reporters and pundits have to evaluate the political landscape for state House races heading into the fall.

Instead of stories about the undeniable Democratic trends in Northern Virginia, pundits will have to leave open the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the GOP isn’t dead in Northern Virginia after all.

Meanwhile, while the Democrats were squandering the natural advantage they had in the district, as well as the amazing grassroots force and groundswell they had after the general election, praise was being lavished on the candidate whose seat was just barely saved: 

NEARLY ALL of Arlington County’s elected officials endorsed Brian Moran for Governor last week. Moran, a former General Assembly member, is pitted against State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-25) and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe in this year’s gubernatorial primary.

……

“I’m supporting someone who has a long history of grassroots work,” [County Board Member Walter] Tejada continued. “He’s a proven, successful public servant in his community.”

With this result, I’m beginning to think that history of grassroots support must be fully in the past…..